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Monsoon no longer determines India's economic fate?

The Indian Express has a rather giddy article about monsoons and the economy. It was an article of faith growing up that if/when the monsoon failed on a particular year, the country’s economy would suffer greatly. Apparently, this is not true any more.

Monsoon grip on India’s economy weakens

The early arrival of India’s annual monsoon promises good crops and incomes for millions of farmers but economists say the rains no longer hold such a sway over Asia’s third-largest economy as they used to in the past.

It is true that agricultural now contributes to 22% of the economy as opposed to 38% in 1980. But, this kind of economic cheerleading is foolish. As the article itself admits, 700 million people live off farming related activities. India’s irrigation infrastructure is poor. The crop growing cycles are based primarily on the monsoon rains, their timing, the rain volumes during certain months, etc. You really think that an event that adversely affects 700 million people won’t devastate large swathes of the country?

Economists place way too emphasis on single macro variables. The relevant variable here is 700 milion!

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    Most random use of global warming as an excuse

    Anaheim council OKs Disney-adjacent housing development – Los Angeles Times

    In a new argument Tuesday, Disney officials provided city officials with an inches-thick packet asserting that the residential project would exacerbate global warming because of the traffic it would generate.

    It is nice when Disney expresses concern about global warming, but why???

    Over the strong objections of Disney and dozens of tourist officials, the Anaheim City Council voted 3-2 early this morning to approve a controversial residential project in the city’s resort district.

    The six-hour public hearing, which began Tuesday night and spilled into this morning, was the council’s second attempt to settle the dispute that had lingered for nearly a year.

    About 150 resort workers, many from Disney, attended the meeting in support of the development, some wearing stickers that read “Yes in Mickey’s Back Yard” (YIMBY). The dozen employees remaining at the meeting cheered when the project was approved.

    Ah, I get it, they don’t want people working at Disney living near Disney!! So, go ahead, use global warming as an excuse! If it were not disgustingly hypocritical, it would be funny.

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    India at 60 – A Public Health Perspective

    Well, at least I don’t have to take part in endless parades and listen to speeches any more. But India turned 60 today, and the head of the Indian public health foundation takes stock, and it is sobering.

    The Hindu : Persisting public health challenges

    Recent health indicators in India are a cause for both celebration and concern. While life expectancy at birth has risen to 63 years, infant mortality rate (IMR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR) are still at unacceptably high levels (57 per 1000 and 301 per 100,000 live births respectively). There is widespread disparity among States with Kerala being the star performer. Within States, the rural areas are way behind the urban segments. Even as our economy has grown rapidly, the nutritional status of children has remained stunted, suggesting that wide income disparities are preventing the poor from becoming the beneficiaries of growth.

    Yes, I be the killjoy.

    More from Amartya Sen

    There is reason enough to celebrate many things happening in India right now. But there are failures as well, which need urgent attention. For example, there is still widespread undernourishment in general and child undernutrition in particular–at a shocking level. The failures include, quite notably, the astonishing neglect of elementary education in India, with a quarter of the population–and indeed half the women–still illiterate.

    The average life expectancy in India is still low (below 64) and infant mortality very high (58 per 1,000 live births). It is certainly true that India has narrowed the shortfall behind China in these areas–that is, in life expectancy and infant mortality–but there is still some distance to go for the country as a whole. The problems are gigantic in some of the more “backward” states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. And yet there are other states in which the Indian numbers are similar to China’s.

    he goes on…

    If India has to overcome these failures, it has to spend much more money on expanding the social infrastructure, particularly school education and basic health care. It also needs to spend much more in building up a larger physical infrastructure, including more roads, more power supplies and more water. In some of these, the private sector can help. But a lot more has to be spent on public services themselves, in addition to improving the system of delivery of these services, with more attention paid to incentives and disciplines, and better cooperation with the unions, consumer groups and other involved parties.

    Ah, basic and boring infrastructure building!

  • Condoms too big for Indian Men

    This is precisely the kind of story that makes the most emailed list of the bbc news website. It’s got everything, obsession and insecurity about size, snigger potential, the chance to laugh at a whole race of not so well endowed men, etc!

    BBC NEWS | South Asia | Condoms ‘too big’ for Indian men

    The study found that more than half of the men measured had penises that were shorter than international standards for condoms. It has led to a call for condoms of mixed sizes to be made more widely available in India. The two-year study was carried out by the Indian Council of Medical Research. Over 1,200 volunteers from the length and breadth of the country had their penises measured precisely, down to the last millimetre.

    The story does everything except tell you what the average length was and what the average condom length is, I guess they wanted to spare the blushes.

    But this is the priceless part of the article…

    But Indian men need not be concerned about measuring up internationally according to Sunil Mehra, the former editor of the Indian version of the men’s magazine Maxim. “It’s not size, it’s what you do with it that matters,” he said. From our population, the evidence is Indians are doing pretty well.

    No, really! You don’t say!

    All joking aside, an ill fitting condom is buzz kill, and a disincentive for men to use it. But isn’t girth more important than length? A condom that’s too long does not tear or slip off as long as it fits otherwise, it is a condom that is too tight that will tear. This article mentions a failure rate of 20%, but is that really length related? After all, latex is affected by heat and humidity, especially if the seals are broken. I don’t know. But vending machines are the way to go, as well as “fitted” prophylactics. After all, when you buy a pair of jeans, it is waist and length, right!

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    Obama interview in Indian magazine

    In an exclusive interview, the US presidential hopeful speaks on a range of subjects: the nuclear deal, Mahatma Gandhi, his ability to reconcile Islam with modernity, and how he wouldn’t have put all eggs in the Musharraf basket

    ‘I Am Reluctant To Seek Changes In The N-Deal’ : outlookindia.com

    Interesting interview. Obama says the right things most of the time, so no surprises here. The interviewer also helpfully provides a summary at the top of the interview where he tells us what Obama said and what it means, a little bit of contextualization that goes a long way in helping the reader get perspective on the issues. Western journalists should try this sometime…

    On the nuclear deal

    “I continue to hope this process can be concluded before the end of the year…. I am reluctant to seek changes.”

    His remarks suggest he is opposed to renegotiating the deal, as the BJP has demanded. Should the deal not be sealed this year, Obama as president isn’t likely to impose new conditions, a fear the UPA has constantly stoked to compel its critics to fall in line.

    Now that’s an interesting observation because the proposed India-US nuclear deal will formalize India’s standing as a nuclear weapons power while providing the country with access to reactor fuel and technology. The deal will also mean that India will have to come under the purview of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure that certain nuclear safeguards can be agreed upon and met. The so called communist parties of India are protesting this as an affront to the sovreignity of the Indian State and have withdrawn support to the Indian government, who faces a very delicately balanced vote of confidence next week.

    Both the US and Indian governments are currently in agreement that the deal needs to be done before Bush leaves or else… Obama’s thrown a little bit of cold water over this idea, which will weaken the ruling party’s hand a little. The deal has been ratified by the US, so the only thing standing in the way is the continued stability of the current Indian government.

    What do I think? Nothing much other than it appears that India is getting most of what it wants from this deal, a formalization of its nuclear weapons status, access to more civilian technology and legitimization of its nuclear programme in return for some safeguards (which are good for safety and non-proliferation anyway). It’s just that the opposition BJP cannot possibly support the deal because they are the opposition and recent election results in various states have them reasonably confident of getting back in power in New Delhi if the government were to fall and elections were to be called. The left is trying to remain relevant and is usually reflexively anti-US. So dealing with the US government is like dealing with Satan for the “communist” parties (right, call yourselves communists, insult to the word).

    In other, more personal parts, we find out that Obama was in Pakistan for a few weeks when he was 19, which I did not know, but is apparently common news knowledge.

    Interesting times, he’s not even president yet and still has great influence on happenings far away.

  • Terrorist attack on Mumbai Rail System

    The system carries 4.5 million people everyday.

    IBNLive : SEVEN BLASTS ROCK MUMBAI, 80 FEARED DEAD

    New Delhi: Seven major explosions rocked Mumbai on Tuesday. The serial blasts occurred at Borivili, Khar, Meera Road, Matunga, Jogeshwari, Bhayander railway stations and a seventh on the Khar-Santacruz subway. Maharashtra DGP P S Pasricha said 70 to 80 people have been killed in the blasts. Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh said he believed that over 300 people have been injured in the serial blasts.

    More here

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    Brits…

    Yes, fight and die for us in the most important war we ever fought, but god forbid, we don’t want you to live with us.

    BBC NEWS | UK | Gurkha hero appeals for UK entry

    A former Gurkha who won the British military’s highest honour is appealing against a decision to deny him a home in the UK. Tul Bahadar Pun, 84, who was awarded the Victoria Cross during World War II, wants to move from Nepal to the UK for health reasons. But British officials in Nepal told him that he was unable to demonstrate strong enough ties to the UK.

    Geez, are these guys morons or what? Is this just plain old “going by the book” incompetence, or something more malign? Anyway, I don’t expect anything more from these people. It’s kinda like how the US lets fewer Iraqi refugees in than Sweden.

    Update June 3rd:

    All’s well that ends well…

    Tul Bahadur Pun, 84, who wanted to move from Nepal for medical reasons, promised to be a “credit” to Britain and expressed “deep gratitude”.

    He was initially told he did not have enough British ties to move but was eventually granted a visa because his case was “exceptional”

One Comment

  1. The key word is farm-related, Not all those 700 million people are farmers. There is a significant amount Non-farm employment in rural India.

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