Brownlee’s mistake was to put into practice something that worked only in theory.
Meet the economists who know why we buy what we buy | Money | The Guardian
Buried in an excellent article introducing the field of behavioural economics to a wider audience is that one line takedown of economics theory! I happen to believe that economists just aren’t scientific enough to understand how modeling works. A well behaved, rational human being who makes every decision independently of other decisions based solely on maximizing her economic utility is like (warning, quantum theory reference) a physicist reading about the particle in a box model and deciding to predict the behavior of all subatomic particles. Yes, it is a neat theory with some neat math, but it’s only the first step!
Scientists try to be a little more humble with their modeling. They seem to know that the chaos and probability driven events in even the simplest of real world settings make models/simulation mostly exercises in trend seeking, not deterministic end points.
To predict the economic behavior of people, you have to include the variables that make them people! Not assume that all people will follow all your assumptions of their behavior strictly, and to not call them names when they don’t act to maximize their short term utility!
Anyway, apropos nothing, I like to rant about economists! The article also notes that Barack Obama is a follower of behavioral economics, good for him. I wonder if McCain even knows what that phrase means.
Another big factor in the majority/minority government game is that the Bloq Quebecois usually gains a signifcant portion of seats, but only runs candidates in Quebec. They typically take from the Tory vote in that province.
Right, the perils of simple addition in a multi-party system! It’s early days (for Canada), the American election seems to have been going on forever and is still many months away, I like this compressed schedule a lot better…
Absoloutely… consider the the hundreds of millions spent in a US presidential election cycle over almost 2 years of campaigning in comparison to what a Canadian election costs (I don’t know, but I’ll wager it’s not in the same ballpark). And while the multi-party system might open itself to short-term governments and more frequenct elections, in reality the parties are disincented from forcing early elections due to voters punishing them for going back to the polls early. The Harper government survived 4 years of minority status… exactly the length of the US election cycle.